Box Office Predictions: Evil Dead Rise no match for Mario Bros?

Super Mario Bros looks to carry the box office for yet another week, although Evil Dead Rise should do solid business.

The big new release this weekend is the newest entry in the long standing Evil Dead franchise with Evil Dead Rise. The film was originally slated for an HBO Max premiere, but after testing the film and getting positive feedback, Warner Brothers decided to take this one theatrical. The studio is predicting a $15 million opening, but many analysts, myself included, see this one hitting $20 million due to its excellent marketing campaign, the trailer was effectively creepy, and stellar reviews, including an excellent 9/10 from our own Jessica Dwyer. With a reported budget of just $15 million, anything in that range on opening weekend will be a huge bucket of win. The previous film in this enduring franchise, 2013’s Evil Dead was able to open with nearly $26 million, of course it wasn’t facing nearly the level of competition this new one is looking at, opening against the re-release of Jurassic Park and the second week of G.I Joe: Retaliation.

The next wide release of the week is Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant which is the full title. Guy Ritchie has finally achieved a level of success to where his name becomes part of the title. Personally, I find that to be well earned as he has made some of my favorite films including Snatch and Lock, Stock, and Two Smoking Barrels and has continued to put out solid entertainment since, with his last three films being some of the best released in their respective years including The Gentlemen, Wrath of Man and this years highly underrated Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre. Despite decent reviews, including a 7/10 from our own Chris Bumbray, it doesn’t look like this Jake Gyllenhaal starring war film is going to set the box office on fire, expected to hit under $5 million for the weekend. There is the possibility of it over performing in the fly over states, but I don’t think this one gets to a top five finish, not with the competition it is facing.

Rounding out the new releases for the week are Chevalier, opening on 1200 screens and expected to finish with under $5 million while the Shailene Woodley starring To Catch a Killer and the Ray Romano directed Somewhere in Queens look to ignite the indie box office. 

If seeing a three hour film that has baffled reviewers, including our own Chris Bumbray who gave it a 6/10 in his review, is your cup of tea, than you may be interested in the expansion of Ari Aster’s Beau Is Afraid starring Joaquin Phoenix. Last week the film released on just four screens in New York and Los Angeles and posted the second best per screen average since the pandemic hit with $80,000 per screen, with only 2021’s Licorice Pizza having a better per screen average at $86,000. This week the film will hit 962 screens and you can decide for yourself if the latest from the Hereditary filmmaker is a masterpiece or a jumbled mess. 

But of course all of these new release will bow down to the third week of The Super Mario Bros. Movie as it will likely see a very minimal drop off from its record breaking $92.3 million second weekend. With nothing really out there for the family market right now, I can see Mario snagging another $60-65 million easily. If the film can get to the $70 million mark, it will take down such films as Avatar and its sequel Avatar: The Way of Water for the second best third week ever (the record will remain with Star Wars: The Force Awakens with just over $90 million in its third week.) 

Rounding out the top five will be the continued stellar runs of R rated films Air and John Wick: Chapter 4 with around $5 million each with fifth place likely going to Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves as it continues its slow crawl to the domestic $100 million mark, which it may struggle to hit with around $19 million to go.

Do you plan on hitting theaters this weekend? If so, let us know what you plan on seeing in the comments section and don’t forget to check back on Saturday when we have a brief update on where the numbers are heading.

TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie– $65 Million
2. Evil Dead Rise– $20 Million
3. Air– $5.1 Million
4. John Wick: Chapter 4– $4.9 Million
5. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves–$4 Million